Rowsdower

I think Bear tried that last year. I dunno if it worked...

At least its something.

Me? Judging from your grammar I'd say you're retarded... Anyway, Java decided to not work on my comp so I can't freaking see any of the guns. I wanted to see what trails they have them on, oh well. The accuweather forecast isn't particularly amazing, but neither is it too bad. The thing that will determine if Bear blows snow or not will be their ability and their willingness to blow in marginal conditions. I know last year they devised a plan to be able to open with x hours of marginal snowmaking, does anyone know what that number is? I can see them pulling off a Dec 1 opening provided there isnt a whole lot of melting, they get to use all the available time, the air stays relatively dry, and they actually want to open. If not then they can still get something down, wait for whatever rain/snow event may materlialize early the first week of December then shoot for an opening the weekend of the 8th/9th.

The problem with weather is dealing with certain short-wave weather patterns that are almost impossible to predict until they're formed and in motion. The way trends for whole seasons are predicted is by basiacally taking conditions from the beginning of the season and choosing a setup that fits the conditions. Last year we started off with el-nino but what actually happened was ass backwards from what was predicted. You can only accurately predict weather over one short-wave period, basically the time it takes one system to move through. Predicting subsequent systems is hard because you have to start out with purely theoretical conditions and every subsequent system is more and more possibly inaccurate. Technology can only do so much but can be helpful because they will give you probable situations. In other words today the first week of december is warm. Tomorrow it will be cold. Now I know two different situations that could possibly arise. A storm could hit us, it could just pass by to the south. It helps to know what could happen even though you can't say it will happen until a few days out. Like that I'm composed again

I'm sorry that just killed everyone's hopes.... but I hope this helps http://www.accuweather.com/promo-ad.asp?pa...page=winter2006 Remember how last year we were actually supposed to get a good year? They actually were comparing last year to the 02-03 season, one of the best I can remember in recent memory. We all know they were very wrong, lets hope they're wrong again.

btw if you don't like the noaa forecast you'll hate accuweathers. They actually came out and said taht it will not get cold this winter, ever. Seriously look http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-fe...0&year=2007 dont bother looking at the update, it only reaffirms everything said in this article

I don't count 27, 28, or 29. The humidity may be too much, the ground is too warm, and they'll only have a couple hours to blow.

There's only two nights that whole time they could blow snow.

Well thats basically what that article said. But hey ya know what? NOAA can screw themselves. Even they can't be 100% accurate. Nobody can. This snowstorm was never supposed to happen until it did happen and they didnt predict accumulation until it was already on the ground. Anything is possible.

How many of those days have any possible precipitation? That'll send humidity through the roof and rain is well... you all know what rain does to snow.

Its gonna be in the 60s till February mini zep

The accuweather forecast doesn't look too bad, seasonable for this time of the year except for the next few days. This is not, however, cold enough for snowmaking. They have a good four day window but whether or not they actually make snow is a toss up at this point. The gfs models show a warm up over the first week of December with a major pacific on shore flow setting itself up and cutting off any real cold air. Hopefully the high pressure system that forms off the pacific coast migrates farther north than predicted which will bring in a colder pattern. This warm patterns currently persists up to Dec 5th so a Dec 8th opening date isnt very realistic with the current pattern. My prediction is that if this pattern intensifies or persists opening will be no earlier than Dec 15th. If we get a colder pattern instead I will keep to my Dec 8th date.

Dec 8th or 9th if it gets colder after the 2nd.

Sneak on and bag a few turns. Sucks that the snow is so damn wet and sticky though. It stuck to the base of my board when I tried riding in my backyard. Although that might also be because my board hasnt been waxed in about a year and a half...

Guys please stop making comments about how Bear needs to make snow this very instant. They cannot make snow under these conditions. If they could they would. When the conditions are favorable and they can get enough snow down without it melting in a rain storm they will blow snow. And hey whats wrong with Dec 10th?? Dec 10th is great for Bear Creek.

They could make snow the 24th and 25th. Thats two marginal days before a chance of rain. Then three more good days before another chance or rain. Then after that two very good nights. I'm still gonna say the 8th of December giving them a week to blow after the last rain even assuming it doesnt rain again. The Thanksgiving holiday section is too hit or miss. They'll probably play it safe with the current forecast. If it gets a little colder then they'll start blowing. If the rain events never materialize or they become snow events then they'll blow. Rain in the forecast will destroy whatever they can make over two or three days.

Actually scratch part of that. Bear Creek may not change over to rain, at least not entirely. They may see an inch or two out of this. I was thinking about where I am, sorry. btw sorry for double post

The ground is still too warm for any real accumulation and it changes over to rain this afternoon. We're getting a warmup this week followed by a brief cold snap. Any major storm systems over the next two weeks are going to be bringing warm air in front of them which means adverse snowmaking conditions for the next two weeks. For bear to make snow they will need a good stretch of cold, I'd say four to five days, with no major warm up or rain forecasted afterwards. Right now we don't have those conditions. I'll put snowmaking to commence on the first of december unless next weeks cold snap lasts longer and there is no rain afterwards.

We'll be posting here for the rest of this forums history. I mean "bc new improvements" can be used at any time of the year.

Yeah it waffled back alright. Things are looking good to start making snow next week the only thing that bothers me is rain/snow their forecasting. At this time of the year I'd lean towards rain and that'll melt any snow they make.

Waffled back to a la nina like pattern It can always waffle back though. I'm keeping Dec 8th as my projected opening date.

Thats 3 votes for Dec 1st

The ultimate best year I remember for BC was the 02-03 season. Unfortunately at the time they couldnt fully take advantage of such a killer season. Weather update: Accuweather looks better than it did yesterday, I'd push up the opening date to Dec 1st if it holds that way. The gfs models are looking the best they've looked in a long time. Just pray to God, Allah, Ganesh, Jah, or whatever the hell you believe in that it stays this way!

I still think Dec 8th seems pretty realistic.

Update: As I said yesterday most of this Pacific flow of warm air should shut off after about a week or two as the offshore high pressure system migrates north. It then breaks down but as of now the models do not indicate any reappearence of a strong la nina like pacific flow. Hopefully we'll be seeing more seasonable temperatures as we move into december. The current accuweather forecast is putting the start of snowmaking around the 24th of November.