moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 This has a lot of potential for a good dump, maybe even the Pokes, lol. Depends on how it tracks and how fast. Jet stream is bringing colder air into the NE/midatlantic so far and the current forcasting models keep it there. http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 This has a lot of potential for a good dump, maybe even the Pokes, lol. Depends on how it tracks and how fast. Jet stream is bringing colder air into the NE/midatlantic so far and the current forcasting models keep it there. http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html Current likely scenario puts midatlantic on the cusp, as usual. Crippling snow belt goes right over Jay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melissa Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Love the crippling snow! Too funny. Keep the analysis coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GS_RACE Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Doesn't look like much besides a big rain out with a high of 36 monday and 40 tuesday.... Hopefully its too early too project!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schif Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Just a degree or two to the east and I might get my second snow day in 4 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 I see 15-22" of fresh pow in my future with another 3-5" wrap around LE for an epic 20-30". But not here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan- Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 I think these threads are the ultimate jinx. Not that it really snows all the way through a storm in Pa anymore anyway. They always go limp half way through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 I think these threads are the ultimate jinx. Not that it really snows all the way through a storm in Pa anymore anyway. They always go limp half way through. Feb 10 -15. When will the Poconos get a big snow storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RootDKJ Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Feb 10 -15. When will the Poconos get a big snow storm? Way to pull JC into this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseMuzik Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Way to pull JC into this! Right now it looks Snow -> Rain -> Snow for a majority of spots. However, the backside of this could be intense... dropping a good 3-6" of snow after the changeover. but before that.. we'll get 1-2" of rain. This is still 4-5 days out.. but the trend has been east. Just keep in mind actual low tracks have been verifying about 100 miles W of the model consensus.. at least thats the pattern. you want this thing about 100-150 mi off the NJ coast.. right now it looks at best to be going through NJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdaddyk Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 I don't want a crippling snow storm and I don't want a lot of rain, so hopefully it misses us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan- Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 I don't want a crippling snow storm and I don't want a lot of rain, so hopefully it misses us. Im sure it's much easier up there then it is, getting 30 inches of snow in Philly. It's been awhile since we've had a big storm, were due for another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseMuzik Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Im sure it's much easier up there then it is, getting 30 inches of snow in Philly. It's been awhile since we've had a big storm, were due for another. Just an update.. nearly the entire suite of models save for one or two now have the storm either just off or about 100 miles off the coast. This is a positive development... run of the GFS is just coming in.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toast21602 Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 the high for tuesday just went from 41 to 34 up here... come on snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Law Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 (edited) Just an update.. nearly the entire suite of models save for one or two now have the storm either just off or about 100 miles off the coast. This is a positive development... run of the GFS is just coming in.. But its going east because its weakening, for Moe who will be at Jay it ain't going to matter (enjoy btw so so so jealous) but PA may get seriously hosed on this one. There talking maybe an inch of water, with significant upsloping, good ration and wrap around Jay could easy hit a two day total of 20". Want to see what the Euro thinks this afternoon, track will continue to be the factor and just like in previous storms the models have moved the track two or three hundred miles overnight. Edited January 30, 2009 by Johnny Law Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptDave Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 12z GFS just made it a good snow for me here on the beach. Hopefully that is a good sign ............ these models so far this winter have tended to correct to the west 48 hours out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EST FRIDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING SOME MOISTURE WILL STREAK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ...SO HAVE GONE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS LOW MOVING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WHERE MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD IT GOING FURTHER TO THE WEST. ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN IT HAD THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW HAS THE LOW TRACKING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE EASTERN TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THIS LOW FOR TUESDAY HAS THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION BEING COLDER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS FAR OUT THERE STILL IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE...AND THUS HOW HEAVY WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Law Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Its official Sunday night after I return from VT the Lenai Lennape Power Whores will make a sacrificial offering of day glow 80's Rossi's (thanks spring mtn.) to Ullr. Because we will be sacrificing such radical skis Ullr is guaranteed to bless us all with the mighty deep, the knob and some closer projects around town shall be schralped with reckless abandon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Its official Sunday night after I return from VT the Lenai Lennape Power Whores will make a sacrificial offering of day glow 80's Rossi's (thanks spring mtn.) to Ullr. Because we will be sacrificing such radical skis Ullr is guaranteed to bless us all with the mighty deep, the knob and some closer projects around town shall be schralped with reckless abandon. Glad I didn't get my stix tuned, no edges required next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schif Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Cleaned my base last night, and I'll be waxing tomorrow in preparation for this thing. Whooooo!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RootDKJ Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 423 AM EST FRIDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING SOME MOISTURE WILL STREAK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ...SO HAVE GONE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS LOW MOVING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WHERE MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD IT GOING FURTHER TO THE WEST. ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN IT HAD THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW HAS THE LOW TRACKING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE EASTERN TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THIS LOW FOR TUESDAY HAS THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION BEING COLDER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS FAR OUT THERE STILL IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE...AND THUS HOW HEAVY WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Moe, where's this report from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Moe, where's this report from? NOAA's NWS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moe ghoul Posted January 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 Should be seeing some flurries moving in thru central PA and points north today, unrelated system. Erie sounds like it's getting some snow right now according to TWC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schif Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 (edited) Snowing here now. Its been off and on all day, big flakes with accumulation all day. Not sure on totals as I've been in classes all day. Edit: Just looked out the window, total whiteout conditions now, its snowing about as hard as I've seen snow fall. Edit 2: I am really regretting just wearing the fleece today. Should have brought out the shell if its going to be snowing like this when I walk home. Edited January 30, 2009 by Schif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RootDKJ Posted January 30, 2009 Report Share Posted January 30, 2009 NOAA's NWS that narrows it down a bit /sarcasm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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