HouseMuzik Posted October 26, 2009 Report Posted October 26, 2009 I'm looking at long range forecasts, and temperatures look to be favorable for snowmaking as early as next week. So those hoping for a early November opening may just be in luck.... http://www.accuweather.com/us/pa/lake-harmony/18624/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0 Quote
HouseMuzik Posted October 26, 2009 Author Report Posted October 26, 2009 maybe early November in Vermont.. hehe .. how many good snowmaking nights do they need to open? 3? 4? Quote
Justo8484 Posted October 26, 2009 Report Posted October 26, 2009 i see two, maybe three days before that first saturday that they could blow snow. i know it probably only takes 3 days to get freedom open, but thats with optimum snowmaking weather, which 29 degrees is not. first week in november looks like a stretch as of right now. the forecast that many days out though is generally based on seasonal averages moreso than what's actually blowing across the country, so it could change. Quote
method9455 Posted October 26, 2009 Report Posted October 26, 2009 Friday Nov 6th - Sunday Nov 8th look good there but a few cautions. 1) Forecasts 15 days out are a joke, especially on temperatures. That could easily go from low of 20 to low of 28 without significantly changing the forecast for anyone but those of us looking for a mountain to make snow. Computer models are just not that accurate. 2) Temperature is important but the 3 other factors that go into it are cloud cover, ground condition, and wind. Cloudy nights mean that the low won't come until very late and getting 2 hours of snowmaking weather a night is not worth the time or money. The ground is going to be warm if you just got off a warm spell, and before it is frozen/covered with snow it is tough to get stuff to stick. You make a lot more snow on the 2nd night of the cold snap than the 1st. And of course too much wind which often happens on the first night of a cold spell makes it even more inefficient, but they probably will make snow if they can either way. 3) Friday-Sunday is not a good time for it. If that cold spell was Tuesday-Thursday I'd say they would be more likely to do it so they could open friday/saturday/sunday, but opening monday/tuesday/wednesday isn't the same revenue generator. So I wouldn't be counting on skiing that Sunday, but maybe the next weekend or like I said originally, black Friday. Maybe I'm just mad because I'll be in washington DC nov 6/7/8 for interviews and wouldn't be able to make that but I doubt you'll see then open before the 2nd week of Nov with this forecast. And, if you don't get your hopes up you can't be disappointed. But I'd put money down that in less than 4 weeks I will have gotten on snow in PA. Quote
JFskiDan Posted October 26, 2009 Report Posted October 26, 2009 (edited) i think an early november opening is being optimistic. i can be wrong, and i actually hope i am, but it seems like 25 degrees at night might be pretty good for making snow, but is 40 degrees or more during the day counter-productive? not trying to be a "debbie downer", just trying not to hype myself up for something that might not happen. when i looked at the long range on friday it was much colder right after halloween than it now shows. so...yeah, the long range is a guide that will probably change considerably by the end of this week. Edited October 26, 2009 by smartass Quote
AtomicSkier Posted October 26, 2009 Report Posted October 26, 2009 Who gave me a negative rating in this thread..pretty fucked up.. He lives in Colorado. Quote
nick malozzi Posted October 26, 2009 Report Posted October 26, 2009 He lives in Colorado. fuckin sobe 2 Quote
Glenn Posted October 27, 2009 Report Posted October 27, 2009 What's the point of the confidentiality and the admin's privileged information if they use it in a wanton fashion to single out individuals or raise the stature of their friends. I was always under the impression the position was about responsibility not power and popularity. Maybe I shouldn't have left after all. 3 Quote
method9455 Posted October 27, 2009 Report Posted October 27, 2009 Who gave me a negative rating in this thread..pretty fucked up.. I down vote anyone every time they explicitly mention the rating. 1 Quote
method9455 Posted November 2, 2009 Report Posted November 2, 2009 Busting out the snowmaking wet bulb chart for the year from Bear Creek. Going with an average of Accuweather, NOAA, and Weather.com I get about: Thursday night - 25 and mostly cloudy, 70% humidity. Friday night - 29 and mostly cloudy, 70% humidity. Looks like it will be possible both nights. Based on the cloud cover it won't be great though, those windows might be very small. Daily highs in the upper 40s doesn't help either. I could see them making some snow for marketing/publicity reasons but not a real push for an opening unless the forecast improves a bit. Looks like a better window opens Nov 12th on, but again that is far out so the forecast is not very solid. 1 Quote
JFskiDan Posted November 2, 2009 Report Posted November 2, 2009 everytime i look at the long range forecast it changes.....it keeps flipping back and forth between snowmaking weather and beach weather. of course i cant help but look..... my guess is sometime after the 15th. Quote
method9455 Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 Certainly not this weekend (Nov 14/15). And nothing looking good in the forecast now either. And it is 65 out. Damn it. Quote
poop Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 i have like $0 dollhairs so i dont mind waiting longer for the season to start . Quote
librider Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 Arnt we not supposed to talk about stuff like this eh eh eh? Remeber the chipy incident? Quote
JFskiDan Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 i got my fingers crossed for thanksgiving weekend. might be driving somewhere that weekend though. Quote
method9455 Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 Remeber the chipy incident? ? Quote
jhartley Posted November 28, 2009 Report Posted November 28, 2009 Any news outta the BB Parks? There's got to be a slim chance of a single trail w/ some rails by Dec 4-5? right? Quote
AtomicSkier Posted November 28, 2009 Report Posted November 28, 2009 It's looking decent heading into the weekend, so maybe the weekend after for most places. Hopefully BB can get open midweek. Quote
RidgeRacer Posted November 28, 2009 Report Posted November 28, 2009 Weather.com seems to have revised their lows downward for this week, although still not optimal snowmaking temps it's better than what we've been seeing. Today Nov 28 - 42 Quote
AtomicSkier Posted November 29, 2009 Report Posted November 29, 2009 Regardless of the temperature it was last night with the temperature today, they lost any they may have blown. I've got a feeling they'll be firing them up Monday night for sure. Quote
Blong131 Posted November 29, 2009 Report Posted November 29, 2009 Regardless of the temperature it was last night with the temperature today, they lost any they may have blown. I've got a feeling they'll be firing them up Monday night for sure. haha i went out for a road ride today, had all my thermals on, and as soon as i walked outside sripped to just shorts and a jersey. crazyyy warm this sucks haha Quote
OutCold Posted November 29, 2009 Report Posted November 29, 2009 Some snow for PA in the weather channel 10 day.... Stoke level is rising..... The 11th is looking probable Quote
RidgeRacer Posted November 29, 2009 Report Posted November 29, 2009 Some snow for PA in the weather channel 10 day.... Stoke level is rising..... The 11th is looking probable I'm still holding out hope for next weekend. Quote
method9455 Posted November 29, 2009 Report Posted November 29, 2009 Forecasts for Monday night 11/30 as of Sunday night 11/29 TWC Humidity - 60% (32F needed for snowmaking) Low T - 28F Snowmaking Window 9PM - 9AM Accuweather Humidity - 80% (30F needed for snowmaking) Low T - 27F Snowmaking Window 10PM - 8AM Weather Underground Humidity - 80% (30F needed for snowmaking) Low T - 27F Snowmaking Window 1AM - 7AM I'd be surprised if they don't have people out there to try Monday night. If the forecast holds they could make a decent amount with 6-12 hours of snowmaking in these forecasts. Tuesday night is a toss up on if they can make snow or not, but it doesn't look like much will melt Tuesday. Wednesday looks like some melting and no snowmaking. Thursday and Friday maybe more snowmaking. If this week stays this cold we probably won't have PA skiing next weekend, but a little colder and maybe we will. I think JFBB has to push to open before the rest and the following weekend might not be before everyone else. I also think only JFBB has a chance for this weekend. Quote
JFskiDan Posted November 29, 2009 Report Posted November 29, 2009 love the chart, btw. i'm actually suprised to learn the humidity doesnt lower the snowmaking temperature as much as i thought it would. i would be more than willing to ski on a pocono wrod this coming weekend. Quote
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