Timeless Posted January 6, 2010 Report Posted January 6, 2010 From the Tahoe weather blog, this one has been spot on with the weather patterns for the season so far: "The trend should continue with small storms taking aim at the West Coast into the following weekend. Beginning the third week of January (the week of the 18th) it looks as if a true El Nino pattern is going to try and take shape. Models are already catching onto the idea of the ridge building in from the Pacific NW up into British Columbia, with the jetstream coming under the ridge into CA. This is when we should begin to see larger storms start to enter CA. Thinking that January should be the opposite of March, in like a lamb and out like a lion" Looks like groomers and sunshine until late January then a better chance of some serious storms. 1 Quote
phillycore Posted January 7, 2010 Report Posted January 7, 2010 Looks like January 23-30th was a good week to pick!!! Thanks Timeless... Your reports always get me stoked!! FWIW.. the prize I won came in the mail yesterday including the 2 tickets to squaw, alpine meadows, and homewood... We have 4 of us coming now in our crew.. staying at the base of heavenly, skiing 2 days there as well as one day at kirkwood. (as well as the 3 I won tickets for) Think I'm saving the 3 night hotel stay at Resort at Squaw creek for a summer trip out there with the Wifey since we already have lodging.. it doesn't expire until the end of 2010 so a late dec. 2010 trip could be in order as well... Still need to get my NGP's mounted, and car rental places are killing us with the full size suv with ski rack best rate so far for the week is close to $800 (3 skiers one boarder in our crew so ski rack a neccesity)...other than that we're ready for some POW!! Quote
Timeless Posted January 8, 2010 Author Report Posted January 8, 2010 Latest update: Two storms will hit Tahoe in the time period of Tues-Thurs (12th to 14th). Models have been very consistent the past few days with showing around 1-2 feet of snow from the two storms. These storms are in response to the ridge finally shifting East and allowing storms into the West Coast. The real pattern change looks to set-up for the third week of January as the jet stream looks like it may slam CA with a train of storms. All patterns are coming together to support this scenario. Stay tuned.......... Quote
Dan- Posted January 8, 2010 Report Posted January 8, 2010 (edited) Looks like January 23-30th was a good week to pick!!! Thanks Timeless... Your reports always get me stoked!! FWIW.. the prize I won came in the mail yesterday including the 2 tickets to squaw, alpine meadows, and homewood... We have 4 of us coming now in our crew.. staying at the base of heavenly, skiing 2 days there as well as one day at kirkwood. (as well as the 3 I won tickets for) Think I'm saving the 3 night hotel stay at Resort at Squaw creek for a summer trip out there with the Wifey since we already have lodging.. it doesn't expire until the end of 2010 so a late dec. 2010 trip could be in order as well... Still need to get my NGP's mounted, and car rental places are killing us with the full size suv with ski rack best rate so far for the week is close to $800 (3 skiers one boarder in our crew so ski rack a neccesity)...other than that we're ready for some POW!! Gotta haggle for the rental car. Last year when we did it, we booked a mid sized sedan. Got there and asked if we could get an upgrade. He upgraded us to a minivan with more then enough room for 4 people and gear. He tried to even give us one with a ski rack but his manager wasn't going that far. Oh and we payed 200 for it. Edited January 8, 2010 by Dan- Quote
CaptDave Posted January 8, 2010 Report Posted January 8, 2010 car rental places are killing us with the full size suv with ski rack best rate so far for the week is close to $800 (3 skiers one boarder in our crew so ski rack a neccesity)...other than that we're ready for some POW!! yikes! Did you search for any promo codes that might knock that down? Quote
phillycore Posted January 8, 2010 Report Posted January 8, 2010 Rental cars in Jackson, and Colorado are a LOT cheaper than TAHOE... These rates are using a corperate discount through my wife's company... One of the other guys in our 4 some also has corperate rate structure and can't beat the rates my wife is getting.. We reserved a midsize suv for $285 without a ski rack but this was a while back and now we have 4 of us and it's not going to work without a rack. Minivan would only work with AWD or 4WD... we want to make sure we get where we want if theres a dump... we will pay the extra coin rather than save a few and be stuck with some fwd p.o.s. which can't make it to the resort because they got hit with dumpage... We're probably going to keep the $285 suv and look for another as well... Quote
Dan- Posted January 8, 2010 Report Posted January 8, 2010 Rental cars in Jackson, and Colorado are a LOT cheaper than TAHOE... These rates are using a corperate discount through my wife's company... One of the other guys in our 4 some also has corperate rate structure and can't beat the rates my wife is getting.. We reserved a midsize suv for $285 without a ski rack but this was a while back and now we have 4 of us and it's not going to work without a rack. Minivan would only work with AWD or 4WD... we want to make sure we get where we want if theres a dump... we will pay the extra coin rather than save a few and be stuck with some fwd p.o.s. which can't make it to the resort because they got hit with dumpage... We're probably going to keep the $285 suv and look for another as well... It dumped and we still made it... Quote
Justo8484 Posted January 8, 2010 Report Posted January 8, 2010 Rental cars in Jackson, and Colorado are a LOT cheaper than TAHOE... These rates are using a corperate discount through my wife's company... One of the other guys in our 4 some also has corperate rate structure and can't beat the rates my wife is getting.. We reserved a midsize suv for $285 without a ski rack but this was a while back and now we have 4 of us and it's not going to work without a rack. Minivan would only work with AWD or 4WD... we want to make sure we get where we want if theres a dump... we will pay the extra coin rather than save a few and be stuck with some fwd p.o.s. which can't make it to the resort because they got hit with dumpage... We're probably going to keep the $285 suv and look for another as well... it's an suv, therefore it will have a roof rack of some sort. take compression straps and just strap all your bags to the roof. not as quick and easy as a ski rack, but with 4 of you, you could probably get all the gear into two bags, then just wrap the straps around the bags and the bars a few times, and they won't go anywhere. that's our plan for utah, and we've done it for whistler and for getting all our gear to the philly airport several times. 1 Quote
Timeless Posted January 11, 2010 Author Report Posted January 11, 2010 Latest Update : Tahoe to get Hammered as Phillycore arrives..... Storm coming in two waves for Tues/Wed. First wave is going to arrive Tuesday and work to moisten the atmosphere and break down the ridge. Second wave right on it's heals for Wednesday will be slitting but looks to bring a decent amount of snow over Tahoe. Models have been pretty consistent with an inch plus of liquid over Tahoe and up to 1.5 inches on the crest. Early estimates are for 8-12 inches at base, with 12+ inches above 7000 ft. The ridge will try to set back up going into next weekend with a storm moving by to our North. Meanwhile, the Negative NAO continues to head towards neutral weakening the block over Greenland and allowing the pattern to progress. At the same time the PNA goes towards negative allowing the the jet, being juiced by El Nino, to crash into CA for the week of the 18th. Once it starts snowing it may not stop for a long time as there will be nothing to stop storm after storm hitting CA going into the end of the month. The pattern favors the jet stream being towards Southern CA, but close enough for plenty of snow here, with some of the storms taking direct aim on Tahoe. Rest up your shoveling arms, gas your blowers, and get ready for to be buried in snow because in 10 days a real Tahoe winter looks to show up. Stay tuned for more details on this weeks storm........ Quote
Timeless Posted January 13, 2010 Author Report Posted January 13, 2010 One more update: Snow level was already at lake level this morning and several inches have already fallen. The snow is going to be lighter this afternoon with the snow level maybe coming up a tad before the heavier snow arrives tonight with the stronger storm and snow levels drop. Totals should be around 10-14 inches at the base, with 14-20 inches above 7000 ft. Also, this morning's GFS model is catching onto the idea of keeping next weeks storms going through the following week. First big storm comes in Sunday night and then they don't stop for at least 10 days. Early estimates for the first week are 4-6 feet, but we don't know yet the exact track of the heaviest snows. Snow levels will stay below lake level all week. looks like I will be up there this weekend, might not be able to to get back Quote
toast21602 Posted January 13, 2010 Report Posted January 13, 2010 One more update: Snow level was already at lake level this morning and several inches have already fallen. The snow is going to be lighter this afternoon with the snow level maybe coming up a tad before the heavier snow arrives tonight with the stronger storm and snow levels drop. Totals should be around 10-14 inches at the base, with 14-20 inches above 7000 ft. Also, this morning's GFS model is catching onto the idea of keeping next weeks storms going through the following week. First big storm comes in Sunday night and then they don't stop for at least 10 days. Early estimates for the first week are 4-6 feet, but we don't know yet the exact track of the heaviest snows. Snow levels will stay below lake level all week. looks like I will be up there this weekend, might not be able to to get back thats incredible. don't ever leave that place for the next week. Quote
phillycore Posted January 13, 2010 Report Posted January 13, 2010 HOLY STOKED!!!! Timeless this thread kicks ass for me bud!!!! Quote
Timeless Posted January 13, 2010 Author Report Posted January 13, 2010 HOLY STOKED!!!! Timeless this thread kicks ass for me bud!!!! Glad to be of help to a PASR'r, you can keep up with this guys blog at this link, he has been spot on with all the recent storms. http://sierraattahoesnow.blogspot.com/ I'll see if I can get some pic's this weekend, I think we headed for south lake, most likely sierra-at-tahoe and kirkwood. Looks like we may have to ride in the storms as it will begin on sunday and snow for some days. Quote
phillycore Posted January 13, 2010 Report Posted January 13, 2010 Doug, We actually considered changing our flight and adding 3 more days on, but it just wasn't going to work out this time around (vacation time)... Quote
Timeless Posted January 13, 2010 Author Report Posted January 13, 2010 All booked up for Sunday & Monday, Arriving saturday PM in South Lake Tahoe staying right by the heavenly gondola. Will ski Heavenly on Sunday and then depending on the weather either have another day there or go to Sierra or Kirkwood on the way home. Must remember to take camera, will post pic's if possible but likely to be very grey and snowy Quote
phillycore Posted January 14, 2010 Report Posted January 14, 2010 gotta hit up the wood!!! Stoke market is exploding... Quote
CaptDave Posted January 14, 2010 Report Posted January 14, 2010 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 418 AM PST THU JAN 14 2010 A VERY STRONG JET STREAM OVER 200 MPH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC...AND WILL LIKELY BRING A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING THE AREA LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THEN...MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEY...WITH 5 TO 10 FEET OF SNOW OR POSSIBLY MORE OVER THE HIGHER SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4000 TO 5500 FEET. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PC, Have a great time and stay smart and safe out there. Slide danger is gonna be through the roof. I think you are gonna have trouble getting to the 'Wood though. Quote
sexkitten Posted January 14, 2010 Report Posted January 14, 2010 I love how excited Phillycore gets. He's like a big kid. I'm actually starting to get excited now and I'm not even going on a big ski trip this year. 1 Quote
CaptDave Posted January 14, 2010 Report Posted January 14, 2010 I think you are gonna have trouble getting to the 'Wood though. I thought you were headed out this weekend but you are going the following weekend. Great timing! Quote
Timeless Posted January 15, 2010 Author Report Posted January 15, 2010 I thought you were headed out this weekend but you are going the following weekend. Great timing! Given the forecasts for these storms he may not be able to get anywherwe near Tahoe by next weekend, the forecast for this weekend has the storms not arriving until sunday, after that it could be 10 days of continous storms, I'm actually a little worried about getting back out on Monday night. Quote
phillycore Posted January 15, 2010 Report Posted January 15, 2010 As long as the plane can land... We'll get there for sure!!! Quote
Dan- Posted January 15, 2010 Report Posted January 15, 2010 Just saw this. Ridiculous ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 SURGES COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE FAST PACIFIC FLOW THIS PERIOD EACH WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO COME IN AROUND AT-SUN..MON..TUES AND ANOTHER THURS-FRI WITH MORE TO FOLLOW. MONDAYS SURGE HITS THE ENTIRE COAST FROM VANCOUVER SOUTH TO PT CONCEPTION BUT THEN AS THE HEIGHTS FALL AND THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE TARGET AREA WILL BE MORE INTO CENTRAL CA AND SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR RIVAL THE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 EL NINO EVENT IN CENTRAL CA AND THE JANUARY 1995 TIME FRAME FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA. EXPECT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER A MULTIDAY PERIOD WITH 10-20 INCH MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SIERRA MOUNTAIN SNOWS MAY BE IN THE 8-12 FOOT RANGE. AS THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE SIMILAR RAINFALL NUMBERS MAYBE OVER ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH "20" INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EVENT "CONTINUING PAST OUR 7 DAY RANGE", YIELDING EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. VERY HEAVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING/MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR ARIZONA APPEARS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A "HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT" WITH "PACIFIC RECONNAISSANCE REQUESTED". Quote
toast21602 Posted January 15, 2010 Report Posted January 15, 2010 shit. get out there soon. i hope that hits utah in 5 days. Quote
phillycore Posted January 15, 2010 Report Posted January 15, 2010 My boss just bought a GoPro HD... We'll have some footage to share for sure.... Quote
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