Article about where to ski in this La Nina year

[sibhusky]

Normally, I use Tony Crocker's site for this, but here's another list.

[Sensi]

so, the resorts that are already in geographical areas that get the most snow, will be getting more snow?

[sibhusky]

so, the resorts that are already in geographical areas that get the most snow, will be getting more snow?

Actually, the areas are all in the northwest part of the country and exclude California, Colorado, and Utah. Which get a lot of snow.

[jordan]

Actually, the areas are all in the northwest part of the country and exclude California, Colorado, and Utah. Which get a lot of snow.

it doesn't snow in colorado

[AtomicSkier]

it doesn't snow in colorado

 

sure it does...but that article was saying it's not going to snow anymore then it usually does

 

Jackson is the weakest one on that list

[Justin]

it doesn't snow in colorado

it doesn't snow in summit county, just everywhere else

[sibhusky]

A little more info on the data in the article.

 

Tony Crocker post over on Epic Ski

Here is what I sent Adventure Journal On November 2, 2010:

 

 

 

Quote: Key points:

 

1) La Nina is at highest reading since 1975. It tends to persist through February/March and is thus a strong favorite to be one of the top 5 La Ninas of the past 60 years.

 

2) The list of areas favored by La Nina are extremely likely to have no worse than average snowfall. Most areas only have data for 4 La Nina seasons, but for the ones that do have all 8 seasons going back to 1970, there are still none below average. The snowfall excess of the ones with all 8 seasons is typically 15-20%, with a few of the "strongly favored" group being even more.

 

3) Observed experience is that in big El Nino or La Nina years the expected effects occur from time to time but not consistently. So overall season snowfall trends can be expected but predictions for any specific month or short time frame cannot be predicted with any credibility.

 

4) A few of the La Nina seasons have produced record snowfall at some of the favored areas, 1973-74 (stongest of all), 1998-99 (9^th strongest) and 2007-08 (6^th strongest). The impact does not seem related to the strength of the La Nina once a threshold has been reached, as is nearly certain in 2010-11 per 1) above.

 

5) Casual observers often attribute La Nina influence to a broader range of areas than appropriate, probably due to the limited data of only 4 La Nina seasons since 1977. The following regions are not very sensitive to La Nina: Colorado aside from Steamboat which is favored, the Utah Wasatch, Lake Tahoe, Sun Valley and nearly all of the Northeast. The only ski regions with strong negative historical impact are Southern California and Arizona . Mammoth and Taos are mildly impacted, likely to be 15% below average. This calls for some caution in early season, but mid to late season are unlikely to be a problem due to excellent snow preservation at both places.

 

6) There is a mild tendency for La Nina to favor early season and El Nino to favor late season.

 

Listed below are 10 ski areas with strong positive snowfall correlations to La Nina. First are listed 4 areas with 30+ months of data going back to some La Nina seasons in the early 1970's. The other 6 areas have no more than 16 La Nina months of snowfall data, so snow percentages are likely inflated by record snow that some areas received in 1998-99 and 2007-08. For those 6 areas the true expectation for 2010-11 snowfall is probably in the 130% range.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2010 by sibhusky

[sibhusky]

Tony' Crocker's site has moved. New La Nina page.

[Glenn]

That site uses 297" as Bridger's average snowfall. Multiple other sources state it is 350". Not sure what to make of this, although they do blatantly lie in the snow reports. I haven't seen a mountain yet that doesn't though.

[sibhusky]

Take it up with him. He's got 30 years worth of records.