Seriously, WTF is with this Weather?

[RidgeRacer]

1 hour ago, Benm said:

eight degrees and it looks like all the guns are off. i dont get it

I wonder if they were told to shut it down by PPL. 

[Benm]

6 minutes ago, RidgeRacer said:

I wonder if they were told to shut it down by PPL. 

could be. i just wish they'd be transparent about it if that's the case. 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

37 minutes ago, Benm said:

could be. i just wish they'd be transparent about it if that's the case. 

Maybe they aren’t at Liberty to say why.  It’s pretty obvious it’s cause of PPL the same thing happened last year, I was just asked about it last weekend in the lot and when it was similar temperatures.  Don’t worry when it warms up later I’m sure they can turn the guns back on. 

[RidgeRacer]

I mean it's close but if it's between me skiing switchback and NMDW vs people staying warm in single digit temps, I guess I can make an exception. 

[JFskiDan]

2 hours ago, Benm said:

eight degrees and it looks like all the guns are off. i dont get it

when i looked sometime around 5:30am they were on.  Im pretty sure they were on Rasins, definitely saw some blow over onto main from like a gun around where the weenie wagon is.  

i was kinda surprised they were on based on temps/PPL/Blue Mt, etc.  

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

18 minutes ago, RidgeRacer said:

I mean it's close but if it's between me skiing switchback and NMDW vs people staying warm in single digit temps, I guess I can make an exception. 

I don’t think it’s about people being warm. They’re blowing at bear creek and elk. 

[JFskiDan]

1 minute ago, GrilledSteezeSandwich said:

I don’t think it’s about people being warm. They’re blowing at bear creek and elk. 

Blowing at JF and Montage as well, but just because they are, doesnt mean it isnt a PPL thing.  it could be a Palmerton grid thing, or just a straight up Palmerton thing.  If the grid around Blue is overloaded with Palmerainians charging up their Teslas, and electric heat, they will shut down or fav mountain.  Who knows, maybe electricity has trouble getting over the mountain when its cold.  

[indiggio]

11 minutes ago, JFskiDan said:

when i looked sometime around 5:30am they were on.  Im pretty sure they were on Rasins, definitely saw some blow over onto main from like a gun around where the weenie wagon is.  

i was kinda surprised they were on based on temps/PPL/Blue Mt, etc.  

I thought I saw a post that learning center was going to be closed for snowmaking today?

Edit:  Found it, Summit is going to be closed tonight for snowmaking.

Edited January 17 by indiggio

[Johnny Law]

56 minutes ago, JFskiDan said:

Blowing at JF and Montage as well, but just because they are, doesnt mean it isnt a PPL thing.  it could be a Palmerton grid thing, or just a straight up Palmerton thing.  If the grid around Blue is overloaded with Palmerainians charging up their Teslas, and electric heat, they will shut down or fav mountain.  Who knows, maybe electricity has trouble getting over the mountain when its cold.  

The grid at total must be balanced, Palmerton isn't alone, all of ec up into Canada is all the same grid. In an overall sense it's kwh in vs out that 31 agencies in six regional entities mange. 

For us the regional agency is Reliability First for NERC, basically after the big nyc blackout in the 80s the connected everything in the EC and appointed load balancers so it couldn't happen again. 

Everyone here is also PJM so it's probably a mix of rates and capacity. Basically they could produce more juice but nobody wants to pay x per kwh so they don't produce.

So during the fracking run up basically all the drilling companies had to be producing and finding new plays at all times due to their high use of credit. This meant no matter the price they kept pumping out NG, the price got so low Limerick power station could barely compete on price in PJM and bam 1000mw is offline. 

The other big one is retirement of something like 6gw in the MISO district which is the Midwest. Again we all have to be balanced out so overall for 2022 we had a 17.6gw shortfall which is huge.  Nerc says since 2021 winter the reserve margin has fallen by 6 or 7% although installed capacity is 3x the reserve requirement. 

What does that all mean ? Basically the Midwest is low on output so particularly when load is high we send them juice, up to 13k GW. Additonally because they cant generate enough they purchased interconnect agreements which also limits the total number out there across all districts. Now we can produce mad electricity, plenty for everyone but and this is key not at the prices PJM wants to role at so instead they take the big loads offline until nighttime when the load generally drops. 

Lastly a shit ton of plants aren't winterized, there a mad plants were the boiler, turbine generator enclosures are exposed to the weather. Additionally a lot of valves, gages, instruments that are necessary for running the until aren't protected at all. The big recommendation is for enclosures and wind breaks. 

If you want more info read this, particularly pages 9, 12 and 24 - https://www.rfirst.org/resource-center/2023-01-23-winter-and-long-term-reliability-assessment-presentation/

[Johnny Law]

Before I forget Lower Mount Bethel which is a 600mw NG plant above Easton I know for a fact is all outside.  Rf sends teams to plants all year to inspect and assist with winterizing the plant and I know they went to LMB specifically to help them get their shit together.

Martin's creek is also old as shit and had a fire a year or so back but that's 1700mw that is considerably less reliable when it's cold. 

BEC is pretty new and as far as I know is good during the cold. 

[AirheadD8]

[C1erArt]

On 1/17/2024 at 11:01 AM, Johnny Law said:

Rf sends teams to plants all year to inspect and assist with winterizing the plant and I know they went to LMB specifically to help them get their shit together.

I worked in an outdoor sulfuric acid plant just south of the Bayway refinery in Elizabeth NJ for several years. Talk about miserable work in the winter. One time we had to put 240 volts on our 120 heat tracing to keep everything from freezing. 
 

More recently worked at a turbine power plant just south of Butte, MT. New plant, well insulated. 

Edited January 19 by C1erArt

[Johnny Law]

4 hours ago, C1erArt said:

I worked in an outdoor sulfuric acid plant just south of the Bayway refinery in Elizabeth NJ for several years. Talk about miserable work in the winter. One time we had to put 240 volts on our 120 heat tracing to keep everything from freezing. 
 

More recently worked at a turbine power plant just south of Butte, MT. New plant, well insulated. 

I wondered if the new stuff was generally better protected, honestly I didn't believe them at first when they told me so much of it is outside and not even like in an enclosure. 

I can't imagine an sulfuric acid plant in the winter, some of those places look straight out of Soviet Era Russia 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

5 hours ago, C1erArt said:

I worked in an outdoor sulfuric acid plant just south of the Bayway refinery in Elizabeth NJ for several years. Talk about miserable work in the winter. One time we had to put 240 volts on our 120 heat tracing to keep everything from freezing. 
 

More recently worked at a turbine power plant just south of Butte, MT. New plant, well insulated. 

Were you an electrician?  I remember you said you initially went to college for some sort of religious studies 

[C1erArt]

30 minutes ago, GrilledSteezeSandwich said:

Were you an electrician?  I remember you said you initially went to college for some sort of religious studies 

Chemical engineer. MA in Theology was a layman’s degree - one reason I took it was because I wanted to get out of Jersey for a couple of years after getting a BS ChE from Ruptures, the state university. 

[C1erArt]

53 minutes ago, Johnny Law said:

I wondered if the new stuff was generally better protected, honestly I didn't believe them at first when they told me so much of it is outside and not even like in an enclosure. 

I can't imagine an sulfuric acid plant in the winter, some of those places look straight out of Soviet Era Russia 

The acid plant was built in 1970 (the latest is several that had been at the site), but some of the chemical production buildings were from the 1920s. 700 people worked there, everything razed now, a huge concrete slab. It is on the southern approach to EWR, so I see it once in a while. 

Edited January 19 by C1erArt

[AirheadD8]

Meh for 3 weeks, could be worse. 

[enjoralas]

2 hours ago, AirheadD8 said:

Meh for 3 weeks, could be worse. 

I'm calling a second straight year without Sidewinder at Blue. No one should give them a pass on it this year either. They should have been making snow on it and Switchback for at least the last 48 hours, or at least the last three nights if they don't want to pay the daytime electricity rates as has been reported.

I guess they aren't making enough money because it's been so dead . . .

[momskeeztoo]

45 minutes ago, enjoralas said:

They should have been making snow on it and Switchback for at least the last 48 hours, or at least the last three nights i

Agree. Switchback is best trail on the mountain. I’d rather they not blow snow on Challenge than not blow snow on Switchback and Sidewinder. If they had to choose. 

[AirheadD8]

2 hours ago, momskeeztoo said:

Agree. Switchback is best trail on the mountain. I’d rather they not blow snow on Challenge than not blow snow on Switchback and Sidewinder. If they had to choose. 

Maybe they have pipe issues? 
I’m not giving up on the season just yet, looks like some potential shots on goal second half of January and early March. 
At least no monsoons and blowtorch so they can keep refreshing what’s there. 

[AirheadD8]

Winter is coming back in time for spring.🙃
Could be a nice storm around the 16th

Cold from mid February through middle March with a bunch of shots on goal. 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

2 hours ago, AirheadD8 said:

Winter is coming back in time for spring.🙃
Could be a nice storm around the 16th

Cold from mid February through middle March with a bunch of shots on goal. 

You trust long term forecasts way to much!!!  

[rummy]

Snowing at Elk now..

[AirheadD8]

1 hour ago, GrilledSteezeSandwich said:

You trust long term forecasts way to much!!!  

A month out isn’t too far away. Bobby doesn’t do seasonal forecasts for that reason, I’m trying to keep a positive attitude. 

[Benm]

53 minutes ago, AirheadD8 said:

A month out isn’t too far away. Bobby doesn’t do seasonal forecasts for that reason, I’m trying to keep a positive attitude. 

I've learned to just keep expectations low.

Still, some cold would be nice.