toast21602 Posted January 10, 2011 Report Posted January 10, 2011 not much happening yet. we leave wednesday (weather pending) out of philly. and then we arrive to ski this out at Baker: Overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. South southeast wind around 7 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 17. South southeast wind around 8 mph. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10. East southeast wind between 6 and 8 mph. Tuesday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 19. East northeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Thursday: Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Thursday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Friday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Saturday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Saturday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23 we will keep you updated about everything happening the best we can. Quote
RidgeRacer Posted January 10, 2011 Report Posted January 10, 2011 Sweet. Take lots of pictures / video. Quote
AtomicSkier Posted January 10, 2011 Report Posted January 10, 2011 that forecast is sick. Please take a regular camera, too. Those fisheye gopro shots suck. Quote
toast21602 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Report Posted January 10, 2011 that forecast is sick. Please take a regular camera, too. Those fisheye gopro shots suck. It's easier to use the gopro so you get what you get. If I had another SD card I would take my little point and shoot. Quote
Johnny Law Posted January 10, 2011 Report Posted January 10, 2011 Gabl's is ill The are in between Gabl's and Canyon is redic though bring a partner/avy gear. Hemispheres is awesome if your one of the first 100 Be careful around those big ass trees, beautiful but deadly Quote
Justo8484 Posted January 10, 2011 Report Posted January 10, 2011 i think this is the first time i've ever hoped that we do not get a snow storm in philly. i really don't wanna miss out on riding on thursday. supposedly they'll even be getting snow in the city, so we might have issues on takeoff and landing. this should get exciting... 1 Quote
bluemt1988 Posted January 10, 2011 Report Posted January 10, 2011 Wow! I'm stoked for you just reading that forecast. Quote
toast21602 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Report Posted January 10, 2011 (edited) we will keep you updated about everything happening the best we can. weather updates: Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Light and variable wind. Tuesday: Snow likely after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 19. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 16. South southwest wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 23. Southwest wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Thursday: Snow. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Thursday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Friday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Saturday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Saturday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Edited January 10, 2011 by toast21602 Quote
toast21602 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Report Posted January 10, 2011 I hope you guys are renting something decent..like a Lumina at least.. subaru forester with studded snow tires. Quote
sibhusky Posted January 11, 2011 Report Posted January 11, 2011 Wow! We've got snow, but nothing like that!!! Quote
RootDKJ Posted January 11, 2011 Report Posted January 11, 2011 (edited) Have fun out there guys. Don't drink too many beers Edited January 11, 2011 by RootDKJ Quote
bluemt1988 Posted January 11, 2011 Report Posted January 11, 2011 That forecast is off the freaking hook! I don't even know what I would do if I saw that much snow in one week. Quote
burton71 Posted January 11, 2011 Report Posted January 11, 2011 I was at Baker 3 or 4 years ago for a week with a similar forcast...I had never seen it snow that much or that hard before in my life...it was awesome. You are going to have a hell of a time. Quote
Johnny Law Posted January 13, 2011 Report Posted January 13, 2011 by tuesday it will be cold down to 2500ft Quote
jordan Posted January 13, 2011 Report Posted January 13, 2011 can you imagine how much snow baker would get if it didn't rain. The NWS for the actual summit of mount baker (not the ski area) is calling for up to 153 inches from now through sunday http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.77644215677391&lon=-121.81992530822754&site=sew&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Quote
Glenn Posted January 13, 2011 Report Posted January 13, 2011 Do you think Avy conditions will get really bad??? I figure the rain soaked snow will freeze and then when new snow falls on the raincrust it will slide...makes sense... Be careful guys!!! On the Mount Baker website it says no hiking above the lifts.. The rain destabilizes the deeper layers causing instability now and likely for the next day or two. The snow pack will hold the warmth especially with rain in the pack, even if the air temps drop. With how wet PNW snow falls it will likely bond to whatever ice crust exists unless it is extremely smooth and dense. I don't find this likely. Even then I would expect it to bond reasonably well. Time is the best healer for snow packs though, and the new snow may not bond instantly. I don't know how much more snow is expected but that will likely play a bigger roll for instabilities this week than the bonding to the ice crust layer. Quote
AtomicSkier Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 wow...that sucks, hardcore. Hope it turns around for you guys...whens your last ski day? Quote
AtomicSkier Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like rain again this morning....37 degrees and raining as of 5:20am PST Quote
Johnny Law Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 Do you think Avy conditions will get really bad??? I figure the rain soaked snow will freeze and then when new snow falls on the raincrust it will slide...makes sense... It depends which is always the right answer unless you were out digging pits. Rain can be a stabilizing factor in circumstances with faceted snow in that the rain will sometimes create rounds. It can also be destabilizing like Glenn said. Temperature of the pack can be more important than what fell out of the sky or certainly wind, if you aren't in that area digging pits there is no way really to know. Quote
Glenn Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 It depends which is always the right answer unless you were out digging pits. Rain can be a stabilizing factor in circumstances with faceted snow in that the rain will sometimes create rounds. It can also be destabilizing like Glenn said. Temperature of the pack can be more important than what fell out of the sky or certainly wind, if you aren't in that area digging pits there is no way really to know. Good points, went back and re-read some things on rain on snow. Take-aways: Rain on snow is most dangerous in the first few hours. Snow either slides or stabilizes within a day from a rain even. Snow which has already seen rain will handle the water in the pack well. Dan was saying everything was going which had me thinking about how destabilizing rain can be, just like a spring thaw. On the long term for sure the rain only adds stability to a pack. On the short term it can cause widespread failures. Quote
Glenn Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 Also similar to wet slabs, pits may or may not show the unstable layer. The water weakens the snow pack and causes a collapse, which may not be evident while the pack is dry and more stable. Since these events happen fast I would think getting off the snow a just waiting it out makes more sense than digging pits which will be dated in a matter of minutes to hours in a rain or thaw event. Quote
nick malozzi Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 (edited) Thanks guys for taking the time to post Avalanche knowledge and info. I'm pretty familiar with Northern Interior Rockies snowpack from reading the Jackson Hole Avalanche reports for the past several years but the maritime climate of the Pacific Northwest is something I am unfamiliar with...I went to Whistler in 1999 with my Dad..that was a long time ago.. The other thing to think about when considering avalanche danger in a place like the NW is that their snow already has a higher moisture content then places further east. NW terrain tends to old tighter on steeper terrain then say in UT/CO/MO. Def a general rule, and if you're heading out into avy terrain in a "new to you" area the more you can read/learn the better. Edited January 14, 2011 by nick malozzi Quote
Glenn Posted January 14, 2011 Report Posted January 14, 2011 MO doesn't have anything steep enough to slide. Just saying. Quote
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