Blue Mountain - COVID-19 Update

[toast21602]

Stay-at-home order for PA's red counties extended until June 4th.

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

19 minutes ago, toast21602 said:

Stay-at-home order for PA's red counties extended until June 4th.

As long as I can get pizza..

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Wow 

[Schif]

14 hours ago, toast21602 said:

Stay-at-home order for PA's red counties extended until June 4th.

Then it'll be June 18th

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

On 5/7/2020 at 12:01 PM, RidgeRacer said:

1070 new positives reported in PA today. Went up. Still down from last week by a good clip I believe.

1323 new positives reported in PA today.  

[theprogram4]

Gonna be tough going from 4 hour shifts back to 12 hour shifts

[RidgeRacer]

1323 new positives reported in PA today.  

I can't look at the numbers anymore. Every time you think it's getting better it just goes back up. So frustrating and sad.

[trackbiker]

5 minutes ago, RidgeRacer said:

I can't look at the numbers anymore. Every time you think it's getting better it just goes back up. So frustrating and sad.

What do these numbers really mean? They are only testing a limited number of people. People who have symptoms and first responders are two of the groups. Who else is getting tested? Are those numbers people who are actually sick or do they include people who were tested but are asymptomatic? We know there are people out there who have it, can transmit it, and haven't been tested so what is the real meaning of these numbers?

[Schif]

 

Super Rough work here but from the numbers you get if you google "New Covid Cases in Pennsylvania" here's a tiny bit of overall perspective. For Reference I used the 2019 Census estimate of 12,801,989 people living in Pennsylvania. 

Pennsylvania Covid Cases
Date	New Cases	As % of Population
15-Apr-20	1,145	0.0089%
16-Apr-20	1,245	0.0097%
17-Apr-20	1,706	0.0133%
18-Apr-20	1,628	0.0127%
19-Apr-20	1,215	0.0095%
20-Apr-20	948	0.0074%
21-Apr-20	1,296	0.0101%
22-Apr-20	1,156	0.0090%
23-Apr-20	1,385	0.0108%
24-Apr-20	1,583	0.0124%
25-Apr-20	1,397	0.0109%
26-Apr-20	1,116	0.0087%
27-Apr-20	885	0.0069%
28-Apr-20	1,214	0.0095%
29-Apr-20	1,102	0.0086%
30-Apr-20	1,397	0.0109%
1-May-20	1,208	0.0094%
2-May-20	1,334	0.0104%
3-May-20	962	0.0075%
4-May-20	825	0.0064%
5-May-20	865	0.0068%
6-May-20	888	0.0069%
7-May-20	1,070	0.0084%
Total Cases	52,915	0.4133%

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I feel the worst for the kids that aren’t gonna have summer activities now.  Reminds me of that teacher leave us kids alone song.  If you don’t eat your meat you don’t get any pudding. I think during this pandemic people are driving worse and are more impatient.  

[RidgeRacer]

What do these numbers really mean? They are only testing a limited number of people. People who have symptoms and first responders are two of the groups. Who else is getting tested? Are those numbers people who are actually sick or do they include people who were tested but are asymptomatic? We know there are people out there who have it, can transmit it, and haven't been tested so what is the real meaning of these numbers?

Of course the numbers will never capture everyone with COVID 19 (specifically asymptomatic people) however it's still disheartening to see a rise in the numbers for a few reasons. First off...even if the numbers represent a subset of people who have it, seeing a decrease within that subset of people is still a positive trend and usually and indicator that things are getting better overall.

The other reason is because the powers that be look at these numbers to make determinations about where and when you and I can go when we leave the house. In other words we're locked down until June because of these numbers. So yeah I look at them and become dejected when they go up. Unless, that is, the numbers are complete bullshit, then we have a much larger problem.

[RidgeRacer]

Edit...forget it

[toast21602]

Hope everyone continues to act smart and stay safe. 

[AtomicSkier]

Is it crazy to ask for daily new cases as well as daily tests performed?  It's hard to use one as an indicator without the other.

[trackbiker]

Just now, RidgeRacer said:

Of course the numbers will never capture everyone with COVID 19 (specifically asymptomatic people) however it's still disheartening to see a rise in the numbers for a few reasons. First off...even if the numbers represent a subset of people who have it, seeing a decrease within that subset of people is still a positive trend and usually and indicator that things are getting better overall.

The other reason is because the powers that be look at these numbers to make determinations about where and when you and I can go when we leave the house. In other words we're locked down until June because of these numbers. So yeah I look at them and become dejected when they go up. Unless, that is, the numbers are complete bullshit, then we have a much larger problem.

I get what you're saying but I think the numbers would make more sense if they were put into some kind of context. OK the numbers of new cases are going down. Great. But if the number is 1000 out of 10,000 tested is that better than than 1900 out of 20,000 tested? They never tell us how many are tested each day. Is it the same amount every day or does it vary widely?

[RidgeRacer]

I get what you're saying but I think the numbers would make more sense if they were put into some kind of context. OK the numbers of new cases are going down. Great. But if the number is 1000 out of 10,000 tested is that better than than 1900 out of 20,000 tested? They never tell us how many are tested each day. Is it the same amount every day or does it vary widely?

Oh don't get me wrong I agree with that completely. Would be nice to know how many tests were performed to get to that 1300 and whatever positives. Seeing a percentage of positives as opposed to a straight number each day would tell more of the story. Unfortunately they're not telling us that... unless I'm missing it completely.

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

16 minutes ago, RidgeRacer said:

Oh don't get me wrong I agree with that completely. Would be nice to know how many tests were performed to get to that 1300 and whatever positives. Seeing a percentage of positives as opposed to a straight number each day would tell more of the story. Unfortunately they're not telling us that... unless I'm missing it completely.

In PA they’ve been doing about 7,000 tests daily. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by GrilledSteezeSandwich

[tarponhead]

Oh don't get me wrong I agree with that completely. Would be nice to know how many tests were performed to get to that 1300 and whatever positives. Seeing a percentage of positives as opposed to a straight number each day would tell more of the story. Unfortunately they're not telling us that... unless I'm missing it completely.

Look at data that does not need testing or a known numerator. # hospitalizations and deaths are examples. PA should have graphs depicting these surrogate endpoints. Will not give hard numbers you (and every one else wants). Another good trend to follow is the rate of positivity (% of tests positive of Dailey test total) A decrease in trends tells us in what direction we are heading. Again, without the proper testing these surrogate endpoints are all we got.

 

This is what being unprepared for a pandemic looks like. No adequate testing that is

 

(Apologies in advance for boomer pic)

[Schif]

22 minutes ago, AtomicSkier said:

Is it crazy to ask for daily new cases as well as daily tests performed?  It's hard to use one as an indicator without the other.

This would be useful, but I guess one monolithic number does the trick too. It's not like we would be better served having nuanced information and then be able to focus attention and resources to the people that need it most though. 

It's day like today that make me really dejected about this whole thing. So the governor kicked the can down the road until early June now. He will kick it again when the time comes. 

The sad truth of the matter is that this is way out of anyone's hands right now and no matter how many numbers you crunch or how much context you try to add it's not particularly meaningful. I think it's safe to say that we flattened the curve, which is awesome. Now what though? Safe to go back to business as usual? Probably not. Good idea to quarantine at home indefinitely? probably not. What's the middle ground? 

The philosophical question I'm currently grappling with is this. When is it OK to go see mom? 

[JFskiDan]

53 minutes ago, toast21602 said:

Hope everyone continues to act smart and stay safe. 

Some people will and some people wont.  Since i have been out and about some, im not super impressed with what i have seen.  I think we are about 95% compliant here to be honest.  There are some people here that feel this is a silly exercise, or feel there is just no way this could possibly affect them.    

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I’d rather have a Blue mountain 1977 shirt or hoodie.  

[JFskiDan]

1 hour ago, AtomicSkier said:

Is it crazy to ask for daily new cases as well as daily tests performed?  It's hard to use one as an indicator without the other.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx

this is total cases by county, and i guess total negative cases.  I hate looking at this, its super depressing to see that i live in the third highest county, and we are actually creeping up on #2.  

17 minutes ago, Schif said:

 

The philosophical question I'm currently grappling with is this. When is it OK to go see mom? 

If you ask me, the answer is not yet, but at this point, i have come to grips with the fact that people need to make their own good decisions.  

Maybe i am on the super cautious side of this, but im gonna stay on that side for a while until the dust settles.  Plus we have like killer hornets to start worrying about too..lol.  

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

7 minutes ago, JFskiDan said:

Some people will and some people wont.  Since i have been out and about some, im not super impressed with what i have seen.  I think we are about 95% compliant here to be honest.  There are some people here that feel this is a silly exercise, or feel there is just no way this could possibly affect them.    

95% compliant is really good. Our local state representative has been giving daily livefeeds on Facebook they’re really good and informative.  He said that if non essential businesses open up now in addition to cases spreading fast and future lockdown like 4 out of 5 people are not comfortable and one out of 5 is wearing a tin hat.  If a dine in restaurant has 20 at best 50% occupancy during the busiest times they aren’t gonna be able to survive long term.  Also the contact tracing they talk about may have some privacy issues..why don’t they just chip us already..as long as it gets me savings at CVS. 

[toast21602]

14 minutes ago, JFskiDan said:

Some people will and some people wont.  Since i have been out and about some, im not super impressed with what i have seen.  I think we are about 95% compliant here to be honest.  There are some people here that feel this is a silly exercise, or feel there is just no way this could possibly affect them.    

I mean everyone here. People who I actually care about, mostly. 

[Shadows]

Did I just hear on npr the shutdown wont be lifted until testing shows 50 out of 100,000 or less??