Snow rumors

[jordan]

Last I heard, that was for the coastal states and not the Poconos. The latest forecast for Lake Harmony. These temps would make it champegne powder...something were rarely see.:

those are forecasts made on old model data. right now the NAM shows a changeover to rain even in the poconos during the middle of the event, it has snow-->rain--->snow.

 

The latest GFS is also slightly warmer but still has all snow for NEPA,

bottom line, champagne powder is unlikely

 

unfortunately areas west of the poconos may get more snow than the pocs because a changeover is possible in the pocs...

As of right now, all of eastern PA only has a special weather statement and farther west there are winter storm watches

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Tussey may be the place to be on wednesday

Edited February 12, 2007 by jordan

[bigdaddyk]

those are forecasts made on old model data. right now the NAM shows a changeover to rain even in the poconos during the middle of the event, it has snow-->rain--->snow.

 

The latest GFS is also slightly warmer but still has all snow for NEPA,

bottom line, champagne powder is unlikely

 

unfortunately areas west of the poconos may get more snow than the pocs because a changeover is possible in the pocs...

As of right now, all of eastern PA only has a special weather statement and farther west there are winter storm watches

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Tussey may be the place to be on wednesday

 

I have a winter storm watch here in Bloomsburg. If we are supposed to get a lot of snow, the Poconos should also get a lot. We rarely get more than the Poconos. Areas N and W of the I-95 corridor are supposed to stay snow. I still don't believe we will get it...I'd be more ready to believe that we will get anything but snow.

Edited February 12, 2007 by bigdaddyk

[jordan]

I have a winter storm watch here in Bloomsburg. If we are supposed to get a lot of snow, the Poconos should also get a lot. We rarely get more than the Poconos. Areas N and W of the I-95 corridor are supposed to stay snow.

do you understand how coastal storms work? I dont care if you usually get less snow than the poconos, if that storm comes too far inland, which some models are suggesting, you will get snow and the poconos will get rain.

[bigdaddyk]

do you understand how coastal storms work? I dont care if you usually get less snow than the poconos, if that storm comes too far inland, which some models are suggesting, you will get snow and the poconos will get rain.

 

Yes...I know that you can't always follow the models, I took a climate class.

[Ski]

High: 15

Low: 7

 

That's one cold f*cking rain.

[Zonked]

we may be leaving tuesday instead of wednesday AM now..we want to make sure we don't get stuck in philly.

go figure they are calling for a snow storm the week I won't be around. I can't complain though I'll be around snow in CO ha. if we really do get this storm you can expect to see me at blue alot. perhaps I'll skip school hah

[Ski]

we may be leaving tuesday instead of wednesday AM now..we want to make sure we don't get stuck in philly.

go figure they are calling for a snow storm the week I won't be around. I can't complain though I'll be around snow in CO ha. if we really do get this storm you can expect to see me at blue alot. perhaps I'll skip school hah

Yeah, jeez, Zonked, I was gonna suggest you take a pillow to the airport...we have a Thursday flight we're a little worried about.

[volklyokel]

The models shifted everything to the north, quite a bit today. The forecast for Blue Knob still looks sweet. Hate to say this again, but I really do seem to know what week to pick for my east-coast ski week... Highs around 20 on Tuesday mean NO RAIN AND ALL SNOW! Plus Blue Knob is always c-c-c-cold compared to the valleys of Bedford and Blair Counties. I hope we get a foot or more! Pow in the glades - yippee!

 

This is the NOAA forecast for Bedford and Blair Counties, issued Sunday afternoon.

 

350 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE

AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF

SNOW 50 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS

AROUND 15. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...A STEADY SNOW DEVELOPING. MODERATE ACCUMULATION. MUCH

COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF

SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY

ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 10. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF

SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...TAPERING TO

JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT

TIMES IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE

MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

[jordan]

High: 15

Low: 7

 

That's one cold f*cking rain.

if you don't understand how a noreaster works, dont comment. In order to get all snow the storm track has to be in a very specific area. Too far inland, you get rain, too far out to sea, you get nothing. THE STORM TRACK has EVERYTHING to do with how cold it will be, some of the models are suggesting that it will track inland, which will allow warm air in on the east side of it. If the models suggesting that scenereo verify, there WILL be a changeover in NEPA.

 

Edited February 12, 2007 by jordan

[Zonked]

Yeah, jeez, Zonked, I was gonna suggest you take a pillow to the airport...we have a Thursday flight we're a little worried about.

well if we leave wednesday, it will be a nice 4am departure from our house. Not even a pillow will make me happy at that point..hah At that point if I'm tired I just fall asleep when and where ever I want. no pillow is needed.

 

Where are you headin Ski?

 

were you goin? i have a thurs morning flight

 

i'm getting worried about rain

 

yikes, yeah I didn't even think about that. I haven't really even looked at the forecast, I just know snow is expected.

 

I know I have probably asked you a zillion times but where are you going?

[jordan]

this storm is looking warmer and warmer with every run, sorry guys you will get some snow out of it, but its looking less and less like "the big one"

[bigdaddyk]

this storm is looking warmer and warmer with every run, sorry guys you will get some snow out of it, but its looking less and less like "the big one"

 

The latest GFS runs are putting it a little farther to the east. Plus there is supposed to be a cold front come in first, bringing reinforcing cold air. If high pressure keeps the cold air locked in, the Poconos might not be that bad off. The 18z gfs should shed a little more light on it. It's too early to go either way, because the models are still waffeling. If it does mix, it should go back to snow as more cold air is drug in.

Edited February 12, 2007 by bigdaddyk

[jordan]

The 0z gfs did go a little east and looks like mostly snow, with a slight changeover for extreme eastern PA, however, the NAM at this point is ALL rain east of about interstate 81. The canadian GGEM is somewhere in between. I guess we will wait and see. Either way, it will be very close, and snow to water ratios probably won't be very high.

 

Jordan

[meggles]

talk about disappointment..figures. i actually thought this was gonna be a huge storm for us..

 

 

yea not so much.

Edited February 12, 2007 by k2fujative

[jordan]

i believe pretty much everyone has heeded the overwhelming model guidence this morning and changed their forecasts to a mixed bag for most places

[NJSkiFamily]

A good ice storm could get the kids out of school on Wednesday and some people out of work...I'll take a mixed bag..better than plain old rain..

 

Ugh.......an all snow event on the 14th would have been the best Valentine's gift from Mother Nature.

 

Oh well......please, anything but rain. Sleet on top of snow is okay with me because it may change back to snow at the end.

[bigdaddyk]

The 0z NAM and GFS models keep putting the storm farther east, which means more cold/ snow

[jordan]

models are trending colder, and the storm is becoming more and more intense with every model run. the NAM and GFS both are saying over 2" of water content for NEPA right now. If these trends continue, the forecasts will go back over to all snow, and the snow accumulations may be incredible. Im thinking 12-22 scranton on north, 10-18 south of scranton to the poconos and 8-12 on south to allentown with lesser amounts to the south , as there will be probable mixing.

 

In the event of a mix, it will probably decrease the snow totals, but if these model trends continue, this will be an incredible storm

 

 

this is absolutely insane

 

by the way, that image is the GFS, which as of now is calling for all snow in NEPA

[jordan]

heres what the snowfall totals are if you take the latest GFS run verbatim

 

Edited February 13, 2007 by jordan

[Blong131]

^ what exactly does that mean?

[Ski]

if you don't understand how a noreaster works, dont comment. In order to get all snow the storm track has to be in a very specific area. Too far inland, you get rain, too far out to sea, you get nothing. THE STORM TRACK has EVERYTHING to do with how cold it will be, some of the models are suggesting that it will track inland, which will allow warm air in on the east side of it. If the models suggesting that scenereo verify, there WILL be a changeover in NEPA.

 

 

Thanks for all the great amazing hidden secrets about how a nor'easter works. Any tips on how to drive a stick shift? Maybe a link on how to take an aspirin? Can you help with something else: my shoes are different shapes and they sometimes hurt when I put them on. Is there supposed to be a right and a left?

[jordan]

Thanks for all the great amazing hidden secrets about how a nor'easter works. Any tips on how to drive a stick shift? Maybe a link on how to take an aspirin? Can you help with something else: my shoes are different shapes and they sometimes hurt when I put them on. Is there supposed to be a right and a left?

you were taking the forecasted highs and said "look, i dont care what that storm does, you cant have 20 degrees and have rain" you neglected the fact that if the storm shifted the way the models were indicating as that time, the actual highs would be much higher than the forecast. You obviously don't understand how eastern coastal storms work. Every storm has a warm and cold side. If the storm tracks inland, guess what, you are on the warm side and get rain.

 

Jordan

Edited February 13, 2007 by jordan

[jordan]

^ what exactly does that mean?

by the way, that meant 6-8 for philly, 10-15 ish north of philly to allentown 15-20 for the southern poconos and 20-30 for NEPA (those may be a little off based on my limited knowledge of PA geography)

 

it obviously isnt going to verify that much, but that is what the 0z gfs last night prediced

[Ski]

you were taking the forecasted highs and said "look, i dont care what that storm does, you cant have 20 degrees and have rain" you neglected the fact that if the storm shifted the way the models were indicating as that time, the actual highs would be much higher than the forecast. You obviously don't understand how eastern coastal storms work. Every storm has a warm and cold side. If the storm tracks inland, guess what, you are on the warm side and get rain.

 

Jordan

 

No, Jordan, I was making fun of you. And then I made fun of you after you were mean and told me to shut up. But if you ever tell me it's 7 degrees and raining in NEPA, then I'll fly to Colorado and kick you in the butt really hard. As Doug said: bad stoke.

 

(and thanks for more secret info)

 

Are we good, now, JMan? I don't wanna argue about weather...weather is too nerdy.

[jordan]

(and thanks for more secret info)

i never called it secret info, just things that you happen to be uneducated on.

 

were good, i was simply trying to correct your misconception. I never was trying to be mean.

 

Jordan