The Opening Thread

[Rowsdower]

We obviously have several weeks of waiting yet. In the interim we'll be looking at developing conditions and crossing our fingers for cold temps. This is therefore not necesarily an "opening thread" at least not yet, hopefully it will be soon. Right now its more of a weather thread.

 

Anyway here's today's accuweather 15 day forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-15day....62&metric=0

 

As you can see a small window opens between the 17th and the 19th that will bring favorable snowmaking temperatures. However this will only serve to cool down the pond and the ground since there will be a two day period following where a slight warm-up occurs. Then three more days of cold temperatures followed by another warm up, so no snowmaking at least in the next two weeks at this point.

 

Here are the latest gfs models for the next 16 days: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0/model_l.shtml

 

You want the 10m Wnd 6 hour pcpn, its the first column. Looking at these we see a series of storms moving through following a northern track that blocks most of the coldest air from dominating our area. Basically the cold that should be sticking around is being held north by a strong westerly flow which keeps the jet stream farther north than it would typically be. This pattern is not favorable for the east coast as storms dig troughs across the western US but push huge amounts of warm air in front of them. This also makes most storms major rain makers. A typical winter pattern puts storms on a more southerly track that brings in colder air and pulls storms north bringing moisture along the coast to run into cold air coming from Canada, in essence forming the classical noreaster. While it is only November it would still be nice to see a more winter like pattern forming. Looking towards the end of the gfs forecast we see a major storm move south but still track north up the great plains and a warm ridge forming across the east.

 

Long story short; cold air is coming but it isnt sticking around long enough.

 

What does this say for snowmaking? Well probably none will take place the next two weeks, however as we move towards december a colder pattern, or simply a less warm pattern will develop that will allow for snow-making.

 

My current opening date predicition for Bear Creek is Dec 8th-9th or the 15th-16th.

 

Think Cold!

Edited November 12, 2007 by Rowsdower

[snowboarddude]

how do u know the pattern will change in the begining of dec???

[Rowsdower]

Even if the current pattern persists it's weak enough that the warm-ups will be far less devastating than they were last year so Bear should be able to go ahead with snowmaking regardless. Last year we had warm-ups in December that went well into the 60s. It's November and we're just pushing 50 a couple times a week. That's not too bad for November. If the westerly flow strengthens, I dont even want to talk about that....

 

To answer your question from the other thread - Boulder is much colder than Bear, thats why they opened. That and they were hell bent on just opening. If Bear really really really reallllllly wanted to they could open with absolute minimal terrain and one lift after a three or four day cold snap as well, but they're not going to unless they're desperate... like last year.

Edited November 12, 2007 by Rowsdower

[Rowsdower]

This is true and its nice that this year we're getting more of these cold snaps more frequently than last year. Last year it was warmer a larger percent of the time than it was colder during the early season. Right now we've got it about even or maybe slightly in favor of the colder side. Basically its a toss up at this point.

 

The rule of thumb with this weather scenario is to assume its gonna get mild before a storm. The question though is where the storm tracks, whether the pattern holds or breaks, or whether the storm forms at all. All this can change temperatures and as GrilledSteeze said above, once you get out beyond a week you shouldnt believe in anything more than the trends presented because there are just too many factors to take into account. Even trends are often wrong. I hope I don't sound too contradictory here.

[bigdaddyk]

...Looking at these we see a series of storms moving through following a northern track that blocks most of the coldest air from dominating our area. Basically the cold that should be sticking around is being held north by a strong westerly flow which keeps the jet stream farther north than it would typically be. This pattern is not favorable for the east coast as storms dig troughs across the western US but push huge amounts of warm air in front of them. This also makes most storms major rain makers. A...

This is a typical La Nina pattern, which is what a lot of forecasters are predicting for this winter .

...The 15 day accuweather forecast does not look good to me..

It looks pretty good for Lake Harmony.

[GNU_rider]

Well rowsdower seems to really have his shit together around meteorology, but what I've heard is also pretty close to what he's said that december is going to be colder in fact I've heard that december is going to be abnormally cold so if it's true that would be really nice.

[Rowsdower]

Around april and may noaa predicted abnormally cold temperatures for the northeast during december and january however they have since revised that as la nina developed. The thing to remember here is that this years pattern is not as strong as last years so we won't have 50s and 60s around New Years (thank god). Usually in mid to moderate la nina years temperatures average out to around normal to slightly below normal.

 

Anyway weather updates: The storm at the end of the next two week period appears to have a signifigant amount of cold air behind it. The thing to watch is how long it persists. We ideally want a good week of cold weather here. However the warm air in front of the system is only appears to reach 50 (at this point) which is a good sign since each succesive warm up is a little less warm. The biggest problem is the path of the storm. Even though we see colder air we'll still be hit with a good two days of rain.

[snowboarddude]

how do u find this stuff out?

[Rowsdower]

Some simple meteorological knowledge, accuweather, and some different weather models. Mostly I use gfs models since they give you wind, precipitation, and temperature all in one. I posted a link up top. The gfs can be a little confusing at first though.

 

If for whatever reason the gfs link doesn't work just type "gfs model" into google, it should always be the first hit.

Edited November 13, 2007 by Rowsdower

[snowboarddude]

does the cold air mass look big?

[snowboarddude]

i tried reading them and they are mad hard... is there a good % chance that the cold will come and stay and be really good?

[Rowsdower]

Ok, this is basically how to interpret a gfs model.

 

This is 13 days out.

By imlayered at 2007-11-13

 

Everything above the blue line is inside the cold air mass, everything below (south) is in a warmer air mass. This basically shows the border between warm and cold air. Here we are in the cold air. The wierd arrow f things show wind and windspeed. Think of them as arrows with the tines that make it look kinda like a retarded F at the rear of the arrow and the bottom of the F points in the direction the wind is blowing. The more tines and the longer the tines the stronger the wind. Precipitation is the big green/blue blotches. Green is lighter, blue is heavier, and purple/red is heaviest. The Ls and Hs are the centers of high and low pressure systems and the numbers under them are the millibar readings. The lower the millibar number the lower the atmospheric pressure the more intense the storm. Low pressure is associated with storms high pressure with fair weather. The black lines are called isobars. Isobars are kind of like topographic maps for atmospheric pressure. The more closesly packed the isobars the more rapid the change from high to low pressure, and tightly packed isobars also mean strong winds.

 

Now on to really interpretting the map. Look at the big low pressure system over Newfoundland. Winds around a low pressure system always move counterclockwise, so in front of a storm the wind will be out of the south, behind from the north. Look at the winds... they go right around the low pressure system. Now look at the blue/red lines. Sure enough warmer air is being brough up in front of the storm due to the southerly winds. Behind the storm are the colder northerly winds.

 

Ok now lets go ahead to the very end of the month.

By imlayered at 2007-11-13

 

Now this one is hella interesting. Not only do we have a huge, possibly tropical system moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic, the westerly flow is almost broken. The east coast remains mild since this massive storm system is bringing a southerly, easterly flow with it, but look off the pacific coast. A massive high pressure system dominates and cuts off the westerly flow!!!! Instead the high pressure systems clockwise wind flow is bringing in lots of cold air to the Great Plains. Once the large low pressure system moves away cold air should move in and stay.

 

Rowsdower's forecast: If this high pressure forms I'd put my money on a Dec 8th opening, earlier if they don't mind opening on a weekday. The key word is if so don't get your hopes up too much since this is all weeks away and very much subject to change.

Edited November 14, 2007 by Rowsdower

[snowboarddude]

wow u r godly at reading weatheri hope u r rightso that cold air is gunna cut the la nina off?

[Rowsdower]

This is exactly what happened late January last year. Hopefully it stays there and doesnt break down though.

 

I hope I didnt jinx it or scare it away ^^

Edited November 14, 2007 by Rowsdower

[GNU_rider]

Rowsdower has made my day with that forecast I am no longer going anywhere else for my weather.

[winterwarlock]

Kinda sounds like what happened in late Nov and early Dec in 2005. We got a week or so of good cold air and BC was able to open by Dec 10th. We had nice conditions for instructor training. Plus, if I am not mistaken, nearly the entire mtn was open that weekend and snowmaking continued until shortly before xmas when it warmed up a bit for the xmas week. By that time the base was pretty well established so no problems with the crowds on the snow conditions.

 

We can only hope and pray for the same thing to happen this year.

[Rowsdower]

Update: As I said yesterday most of this Pacific flow of warm air should shut off after about a week or two as the offshore high pressure system migrates north. It then breaks down but as of now the models do not indicate any reappearence of a strong la nina like pacific flow. Hopefully we'll be seeing more seasonable temperatures as we move into december. The current accuweather forecast is putting the start of snowmaking around the 24th of November.

[Rowsdower]

I still think Dec 8th seems pretty realistic.

[Bobert540]

The long term forecast is looking good so far.....looks like starting nov. 23-24 it gets into snowmaking temps at night. but of course this can all change, but hope for the best!

[GNU_rider]

I like what's being said here, also I remember the 05 season things were SO good for the entire season it was one of my favorites at bear.

[Rowsdower]

The ultimate best year I remember for BC was the 02-03 season. Unfortunately at the time they couldnt fully take advantage of such a killer season.

 

Weather update: Accuweather looks better than it did yesterday, I'd push up the opening date to Dec 1st if it holds that way. The gfs models are looking the best they've looked in a long time. Just pray to God, Allah, Ganesh, Jah, or whatever the hell you believe in that it stays this way!

Edited November 15, 2007 by Rowsdower

[snowboarddude]

i have friends that went to the job interview and the head people were telling them that they need 2 nights of blowing and parts of the mt will be open

 

i would say dec 1st if they are pushing the whole mt but it not i think then can be open before

[Rowsdower]

Thats 3 votes for Dec 1st

[snowboarddude]

DEC 1st

Edited November 16, 2007 by Mini Zep

[stbgskibum247]

Sounds like a good date to me!!