snowboarddude Posted November 16, 2007 Report Posted November 16, 2007 yet again acuweather is wrong w/e maybe next time Quote
stbgskibum247 Posted November 16, 2007 Report Posted November 16, 2007 I have a hard time fully trusting any weather report...But I figure that I'll go to boulder a few more times and then Dec. 2 is Bear's rail jam. Then the season will probably be just about starting. For those of you park guys that need to ski now, I'd suggest checking out Big Boulder. I was there the day they opened and it was so fun. Tons of kids were really throwing down and the park crew had everything groomed nice as hell all day. Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 16, 2007 Author Report Posted November 16, 2007 Waffled back to a la nina like pattern It can always waffle back though. I'm keeping Dec 8th as my projected opening date. Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 17, 2007 Report Posted November 17, 2007 i woke up and looked at the weather and again acuweather changed it!! i shows next thursday or friday bear should begin makin snow!!! everyone x there fingers that the only way this report will change is get colder!!i'm back to dec 1stwe will know when bear is planing on blowing when we see them moving their fan guns!! Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 17, 2007 Author Report Posted November 17, 2007 Yeah it waffled back alright. Things are looking good to start making snow next week the only thing that bothers me is rain/snow their forecasting. At this time of the year I'd lean towards rain and that'll melt any snow they make. Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 18, 2007 Report Posted November 18, 2007 that isn't always true it is snowing out now and we have a good coating Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 18, 2007 Author Report Posted November 18, 2007 The ground is still too warm for any real accumulation and it changes over to rain this afternoon. We're getting a warmup this week followed by a brief cold snap. Any major storm systems over the next two weeks are going to be bringing warm air in front of them which means adverse snowmaking conditions for the next two weeks. For bear to make snow they will need a good stretch of cold, I'd say four to five days, with no major warm up or rain forecasted afterwards. Right now we don't have those conditions. I'll put snowmaking to commence on the first of december unless next weeks cold snap lasts longer and there is no rain afterwards. Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 18, 2007 Author Report Posted November 18, 2007 (edited) Actually scratch part of that. Bear Creek may not change over to rain, at least not entirely. They may see an inch or two out of this. I was thinking about where I am, sorry. btw sorry for double post Edited November 18, 2007 by Rowsdower Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 18, 2007 Report Posted November 18, 2007 have u looked at the 15 day i think bear will begin snowmaking over the thanksgiving holiday Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 18, 2007 Author Report Posted November 18, 2007 They could make snow the 24th and 25th. Thats two marginal days before a chance of rain. Then three more good days before another chance or rain. Then after that two very good nights. I'm still gonna say the 8th of December giving them a week to blow after the last rain even assuming it doesnt rain again. The Thanksgiving holiday section is too hit or miss. They'll probably play it safe with the current forecast. If it gets a little colder then they'll start blowing. If the rain events never materialize or they become snow events then they'll blow. Rain in the forecast will destroy whatever they can make over two or three days. Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 19, 2007 Author Report Posted November 19, 2007 The accuweather forecast doesn't look too bad, seasonable for this time of the year except for the next few days. This is not, however, cold enough for snowmaking. They have a good four day window but whether or not they actually make snow is a toss up at this point. The gfs models show a warm up over the first week of December with a major pacific on shore flow setting itself up and cutting off any real cold air. Hopefully the high pressure system that forms off the pacific coast migrates farther north than predicted which will bring in a colder pattern. This warm patterns currently persists up to Dec 5th so a Dec 8th opening date isnt very realistic with the current pattern. My prediction is that if this pattern intensifies or persists opening will be no earlier than Dec 15th. If we get a colder pattern instead I will keep to my Dec 8th date. Quote
Phil Posted November 19, 2007 Report Posted November 19, 2007 If anyone is interested in further reading, check this out: http://www.snocountry.com/staticpages/inde...ing-Weather-pre Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 19, 2007 Report Posted November 19, 2007 i don't feel like reading all that!! can u just tell me if it is goin to be a hott or cold winter? Quote
Phil Posted November 19, 2007 Report Posted November 19, 2007 i don't feel like reading all that!! can u just tell me if it is goin to be a hott or cold winter? NO! Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 19, 2007 Report Posted November 19, 2007 BEAR has there winter site up!!!!!!!!!!! Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 19, 2007 Author Report Posted November 19, 2007 Its gonna be in the 60s till February mini zep Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 19, 2007 Report Posted November 19, 2007 rowsdower please don't make me cry Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 20, 2007 Author Report Posted November 20, 2007 Well thats basically what that article said. But hey ya know what? NOAA can screw themselves. Even they can't be 100% accurate. Nobody can. This snowstorm was never supposed to happen until it did happen and they didnt predict accumulation until it was already on the ground. Anything is possible. Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 20, 2007 Report Posted November 20, 2007 in zionsvile they said we were gunna get rain and snow probly nothing sticking! when i woke up we had 6inches Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 20, 2007 Author Report Posted November 20, 2007 btw if you don't like the noaa forecast you'll hate accuweathers. They actually came out and said taht it will not get cold this winter, ever. Seriously look http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-fe...0&year=2007 dont bother looking at the update, it only reaffirms everything said in this article Quote
rgrwilco Posted November 20, 2007 Report Posted November 20, 2007 if this is true, i wont be riding at all this actual winter. i wont have enough money to go anywhere else soon. thats why i got a bear pass for christmas and nothing else. shit. Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 20, 2007 Author Report Posted November 20, 2007 I'm sorry that just killed everyone's hopes.... but I hope this helps http://www.accuweather.com/promo-ad.asp?pa...page=winter2006 Remember how last year we were actually supposed to get a good year? They actually were comparing last year to the 02-03 season, one of the best I can remember in recent memory. We all know they were very wrong, lets hope they're wrong again. Quote
rgrwilco Posted November 20, 2007 Report Posted November 20, 2007 (edited) highly doubt it. my luck as been shitty since the year 2006 began with everything. it would only make sense for me to get fucked over for pass money again. edit:the pass paid for itself, i just did not foresee spending enough money at boulder that i shouldve gotten a pass there, or not being able to use my bc pass during my whole winter break. Edited November 20, 2007 by d-unit Quote
snowboarddude Posted November 20, 2007 Report Posted November 20, 2007 i don't trust any thing over the 5 day!!! although i never argue when the 15 day is good!! there is nothing that can predict over 20 days!!! i hope it is wrong Quote
Rowsdower Posted November 20, 2007 Author Report Posted November 20, 2007 (edited) The problem with weather is dealing with certain short-wave weather patterns that are almost impossible to predict until they're formed and in motion. The way trends for whole seasons are predicted is by basiacally taking conditions from the beginning of the season and choosing a setup that fits the conditions. Last year we started off with el-nino but what actually happened was ass backwards from what was predicted. You can only accurately predict weather over one short-wave period, basically the time it takes one system to move through. Predicting subsequent systems is hard because you have to start out with purely theoretical conditions and every subsequent system is more and more possibly inaccurate. Technology can only do so much but can be helpful because they will give you probable situations. In other words today the first week of december is warm. Tomorrow it will be cold. Now I know two different situations that could possibly arise. A storm could hit us, it could just pass by to the south. It helps to know what could happen even though you can't say it will happen until a few days out. Like that I'm composed again Edited November 20, 2007 by Rowsdower Quote
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